Noone really should be writing about memory without understanding what cHBM, HBF and HBM5 are and what they mean.
The most rational reason to short Micron is the fact they are losing the technology race. Moats are built on a technological lead. The tech leaders on cHBM: Hynix and Samsung. On HBF: Hynix and Sandisk. On HBM5: Hynix and Samsung. Which name is missing on all three? Micron, the everlasting follower. (And any and all Chinese companies, of course.)
cHBM will mean the tech leaders in 2028 will lock in customers long term, giving the first to offer cHBM (likely Hynix, but at least possibly Samsung) incredible pricing power for a very long time.
Great post, thanks.
Glad you liked it!
Noone really should be writing about memory without understanding what cHBM, HBF and HBM5 are and what they mean.
The most rational reason to short Micron is the fact they are losing the technology race. Moats are built on a technological lead. The tech leaders on cHBM: Hynix and Samsung. On HBF: Hynix and Sandisk. On HBM5: Hynix and Samsung. Which name is missing on all three? Micron, the everlasting follower. (And any and all Chinese companies, of course.)
cHBM will mean the tech leaders in 2028 will lock in customers long term, giving the first to offer cHBM (likely Hynix, but at least possibly Samsung) incredible pricing power for a very long time.
I disagree on Micron part and hope to prove it to you in some of my upcoming articles.